Gambling.Now!

depends on the rules you are playing by, but here is the overview. The table below shows the effect on the player’s return under various rule variations and after taking into consideration proper basic strategy adjustments. These changes are relative to the following rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any first two cards, player can double after splitting, player may resplit to 4 hands of. These are standard Atlantic City rules with a resulting player return of -0.43%.

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5 tips for winning at craps.  These will work from Las Vegas to Europe.

1. Avoid Proposition Bets. Proposition bets are made on single dice roll where the house edge is very high, over 11%.
2. Avoid Lay Bets. The most striking feature of these bets is the 5% commission. If you are still eager to place Lay Bets we recommend you to bet in set amounts. Thus you increase you odds a bit.
3. Shy away from Buy Bets. 5% commission is also charged on these bets. Although they can lower the house edge even more than the Place Bets they are still risky. If you don’t see any obstacles one of the craps tips says that it is more prifitable to place Buy Bets only on 4 or 10 as these numbers provide the biggest winning advantage (2:1).
4. Rarely make Field Bets. These bets are also determined on a single dice roll and are not very beneficial. Even though the 5.5% house edge may seem to be very attractive be careful while making decision in their favor.
5. One of the best craps tips is to make Place Bets in Multiple Denominations. By doing this you have the full payout odds. You should wager the numbers 4, 5, 9 and 10 with multiples of $5, while 6 and 8 with multiples of $6. Other wagers will result in uneven amounts which will be further rounded down and used to make even money payout.

5 Key tips for how to win at baccarat. Learn these 5 rules on how to get the odds on your side when playing Baccarat.

Tip 1

According to the baccarat rules the bet on the banker is the most beneficial as it provides the 44.61% winning odds. Despite of the fact that you will be charged 5% commission in case this bet is winning the bet on banker is still the best one.

Tip 2

One of the baccarat tips states that betting on the tie is the worst option. In this case the house edge exceeds to 14% while the payout is 8 to 1. Some casinos pays off 9 to 1 when your tie bet is winning, but nevertheless this type of bet is not very safe. Avoid betting on the tie.

Tip 3

The usage of all possible betting systems will result in failure in the long run. Don’t trust any betting systems and baccarat tips which force you to risk money.

Tip 4

One of the best baccarat tips concerns again the bet on the banker. It says that you should always think about some extra money before betting on the banker as when you choose to end the game you will be asked to pay the 5% commission. Think it over beforehand.

Tip 5

Remember, baccarat is totally a game of chance. That is why one of the best baccarat tips is to leave the table each time you beat the bank.

With only a few days left until the holidays. Here are some [tag]last minute[/tag] [tag]gifts for gamblers[/tag]. [tag]Books[/tag], [tag]cuff links[/tag] and [tag]dice[/tag].

In gambling, the [tag]odds[/tag] on display do not represent the true chances that the event will occur, but are the amounts that the bookmaker will pay out on winning bets. In formulating his odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful punter is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring. This profit is known as the ‘[tag]over-round[/tag]‘ on the ‘[tag]book[/tag]‘ (the ‘book’ relates to the old-fashioned ledger that wagers were recorded in and thus gives us the term ‘bookmaker’) and relates to the sum of the ‘odds’ in the following way:

In a 3-horse race, for example, the true chances of each of the horses winning based on their relative abilities may be 50%, 40% and 10%. These are the relative probabilities of the horses winning and are simply the bookmaker’s ‘odds’ multiplied by 100 for convenience. The total of these three percentages is 100, thus representing a fair ‘book’. The true odds of winning for each of the three horses is Evens, 6-4 and 9-1 respectively. In order to generate a profit on the wagers accepted by the bookmaker he may decide to increase the values to 60%, 50% and 20% for the three horses, representing odds of 4-6, Evens and 4-1. These values now total 130, meaning that the book has an overround of 30 (130 – 100). This value of 30 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he accepts bets in the correct proportions on each of the horses: he will take in, for example, £130 in wagers and only pay £100 back (including stakes) no matter which horse wins. Thus is the art of [tag]bookmaking[/tag]!

[tag]Profit[/tag]ing in gambling involves predicting the relationship of the true probabilities to the payout odds. If you can consistently make bets where the odds of paying out are better (pay out more) than the true odds of the event, then over time (in theory) you will come out ahead.

The odds or amounts the bookmaker will pay are determined by the amounts bet on each of the respective possible events. They reflect the balance of wagers on either side of the event, and include the deduction of a bookmaker’s brokerage fee (“vig” or vigorish).

In probability theory and [tag]statistics[/tag] the [tag]odds[/tag] in favour of an event or a proposition are the quantity p / (1 − p) , where p is the probability of the event or proposition. In other words, an event with m to n odds would have probability m/(m + n). For example, if you chose a random day of the week, then the odds that you would choose a Sunday would be 1/6, not 1/7. These ‘odds’ are actually relative probabilities. Generally, ‘odds’ are not quoted to the general public in this format because of the natural confusion with the chance of an event occuring being expressed fractionally as a probability. Thus, the probability of choosing Sunday at random from the days of the week is ‘one-seventh’ (1/7), and although a bookmaker may (for his own purposes) use ‘odds’ of ‘one-sixth’ the overwhelming everyday use by most people is odds of the form 6 to 1, 6/1 or 6-1 (all read as ’six-to-one’) where the first figure represents the number of ways of failing to achieve the outcome and the second figure is the number of ways of achieving a favourable outcome. This is also the most convenient way for a person to understand how much winnings will be paid if the selection is successful: the person will be paid ’six’ of whatever stake unit was bet for each ‘one’ of the stake unit wagered. For example, a £15 winning bet at 6/1 will win ‘6 x £15 = £90′ with the original £15 stake also being returned.

Taking an event with a 1 in 5 probability of occurring (i.e. a probability of 1/5, 0.2 or 20%), then the odds are 0.2 / (1 − 0.2) = 0.2 / 0.8 = 0.25. This figure (0.25) represents the stake necessary for a person to win one unit on a successful wager. This may be scaled up by any convenient factor to give whole number values. E.g. If a stake of 0.25 wins 1 unit, then scaling by a factor of four means a stake of 1 wins 4 units. If you [tag]bet[/tag] 1 at these odds and the event occurred, you would receive back 4 plus your original 1 stake. This would be presented in fractional odds of 4 to 1 against (written as 4/1 or 4-1), in decimal odds as 5.0 to include the returned stake, in craps payout as 5 for 1, and in moneyline odds as +400 representing the gain from a 100 stake.

By contrast, for an event with a 4 in 5 [tag]probability[/tag] of occurring (i.e. a probability of 4/5, 0.8 or 80%), then the odds are 0.8 / (1 − 0.8) = 4. If you bet 4 at these odds and the event occurred, you would receive back 1 plus your original 4 stake. This would be presented in fractional odds of 4 to 1 on (written as 1/4 or 1-4), in decimal odds as 1.25 to include the returned stake, in craps as 5 for 4, and in moneyline odds as −400 representing the stake necessary to gain 100.

[tag]Omakase[/tag] [tag]Links[/tag] from [tag]Amazon[/tag] [tag]Associates[/tag] for [tag]gambling[/tag] content

In probability theory, the [tag]Kelly criterion[/tag], or [tag]Kelly formula[/tag], is a formula used to maximize the long-term growth rate of repeated plays of a given gamble that has positive expected value. It was described by [tag]J. L. Kelly, Jr[/tag], in a 1956 issue of the [tag]Bell System Technical Journal^[/tag]. The formula specifies the percentage of the current bankroll to be bet at each iteration of the game. In addition to maximizing the growth rate in the long run, the formula has the added benefit of having zero risk of ruin; the formula will never allow a loss of 100% of the bankroll on any bet. An assumption of the formula is that currency and bets are infinitely divisible, which is not a concern for practical purposes if the bankroll is large enough to support the [tag]gambling system[/tag].

Statement

The most general statement of the Kelly criterion is that long-term growth rate is maximized by finding the fraction f* of the bankroll that maximizes the expectation of the logarithm of the results. For simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds, the following formula can be derived from the general statement:

where

• f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager;
• b is the odds received on the wager;
• p is the probability of winning;
• q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p.

As an example, if a gamble has a 40% chance of winning (p = 0.40, q = 0.60), but the gambler receives 2-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 2), then the gambler should bet 10% of the bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.10), in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.

If the gambler has zero or negative edge, i.e. if b ≤ q/p, then the gambler should bet nothing.

For even-money bets (i.e. when b = 1), the formula can be simplified to:

Since q = 1-p, this simplifies further to

The Kelly criterion was originally developed by AT&T Bell Laboratories physicist John Larry Kelly, Jr, based on the work of his colleague Claude Shannon, which applied to noise issues arising over long distance telephone lines. Kelly showed how Shannon’s information theory could be applied to the problem of a gambler who has inside information about a horse race, trying to determine the optimum bet size. The gambler’s inside information need not be perfect (noise-free) in order for him to exploit his edge. Kelly’s formula was later applied by another colleague of Shannon’s, Edward O. Thorp, both in blackjack and in the stock market.^[2]

[edit] Disadvantages

Using the Kelly system in practice does have drawbacks. While it guarantees that you will never lose all your bankroll, it does not guarantee that you will not lose money. When a series of serial bets are made the chance of dropping to 1/n of your bankroll is 1/n. Thus you have a 50% chance of at some point losing 50% of your bankroll, a 10% chance of dropping to 10%, and so on.

The optimum bet for the greatest growth of bankroll is making the full bet suggested by the Kelly criterion, but this produces a volatile result. There is a 1/3 chance of halving the bankroll before it is doubled. A popular alternative is to bet only half the amount suggested which gives three-quarters of the investment return with much less volatility. Where money would accumulate at 10% compound interest with full bets, it still accumulates at 7.5% for half-bets.

Over-betting beyond that suggested by Kelly is counter-productive as the long run return will fall, dropping to zero (with the loss of all the bankroll) when the Kelly bet is doubled. Using half-Kelly bets also safeguards against being ruined by unknowingly overbetting, as it can be easy to over-estimate the true odds by a factor of two.

The above applies to a sequence of serial bets. It is better to diversify, as the gambler who for example bets on every horse at a race using the Kelly criterion makes on average a better long-run return than the gambler who only bets on one horse per race, and similarly for the diversified stock market investor.

In a 1738 article, [tag]Daniel Bernoulli[/tag] suggested that when you have a choice of bets or investments you should choose that with the highest [tag]geometric mean[/tag] of outcomes. This is mathematically equivalent to the Kelly criterion, although the Bernoulli article was not translated into English until 1954 (in an economics journal) and it is unlikely that Kelly was aware of it. For the investor who does not re-invest the profits, but only invests a set amount each time, this rule does not apply; instead the investor should choose the investment with the greatest arithmetic mean.

- The [tag]Kelly Gambling System[/tag]

Originally, [tag]martingale[/tag] eventually flip heads, the Martingale [tag]betting strategy[/tag] was seen as a referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since a gambler with infinite wealth will with probability 1sure thing by those who practised it. Unfortunately, none of these practitioners in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the [tag]exponential[/tag] growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt those foolish enough to use the Martingale. Moreover, it has become more impossible to implement in modern casinos, due to the betting limit at the tables. Because the betting limits reduce the casino’s short term variance, the martingale system itself does not pose a threat to the casino, and many will encourage its use, knowing that they have the house advantage no matter how much is wagered nor when.

Example Implementation

Suppose that someone applies the martingale betting system at an American roulette table, with 0 and 00 values; on average, a bet on either red or black will win 18 times out of 38. If the player’s initial bankroll is $150 and the betting unit is $10, he can afford 4 losing bets in a row (of $10, $20, $40, and $80) before he runs out of money. If any of these 4 bets wins he wins $10 and wins back any past losses. The chance of losing 4 bets in a row (and therefore losing the complete $150) is (20/38)⁴ = 7.67%. The remaining 92.3% of the time, the player will win $10.

We will call this one round (playing until you have lost 4 times or until you win, whichever comes first). If you play repeated rounds with this strategy then your average earnings will be (0.923·$10) − (0.0767·$150) = −$2.275 per round. Therefore, you lose an average of $2.275 each round.

Effect of Variance

As with any betting system, it is possible to have variance from the expected negative return by temporarily avoiding the inevitable losing streak. Furthermore, a straight string of losses is the only sequence of outcomes that results in a loss of money, so even when a player has lost the majority of their bets, they can still be ahead over-all, since they always win 1 unit when a bet wins, regardless of how many previous losses.

Detailed analysis of one round

Let q be the probability of losing (e.g. for roulette it is 20/38). Let y be the amount of the commencing bet (e.g. $10 in the example above). Let x be the finite number of bets you can afford to lose.

The probability that you lose all x bets is q^x. When you lose all your bets, the amount of money you lose is

The probability that you do not lose all x bets is 1 − q^x. If you do not lose all x bets, you win y amount of money. So the expected profit per round is

Whenever q > 1 / 2, the expression 1 − (2q)^x < 0 for all x > 0. That means for any game where it is more likely to lose than to win (e.g. all chance gambling games), you are expected to lose money on average. Furthermore, the more times you are able to afford to bet, the more you will lose.

Simpler analysis

Since expectation is linear, the expected value of a series of bets is just the sum of the expected value of each bet. Since in such games of chance the bets are independent, the expectation of all bets are going to be the same, regardless of whether you had previously won or lost. In most casino games, the expected value of any individual bet is going to be negative, so the sum of lots of negative numbers is also always going to be negative.

tag]Betting System[/tag]: The [tag]martingale system[/tag]

Strategy and comparison with independent bookmakers

Unlike many forms of casino gambling, in [tag]parimutuel[/tag] betting the gambler bets against other gamblers, not the house. The science of determining the outcome of a race is called handicapping.

It is possible for a skilled player to win money in the long run at this type of gambling, but overcoming the deficit produced by taxes, the facility’s take, and the breakage is difficult to accomplish and few people are successful at it.

Independent off-track [tag]bookmakers[/tag] have a smaller take and thus offer better payoffs, but they are illegal in some countries. However, with the introduction of Internet gambling has come “rebate shops”. These off-shore betting shops in fact return some percentage of every bet made to the bettor. They are in effect reducing their take from 15-18% to as little as 1 or 2%, still ensuring a profit as they operate with minimal overhead. Rebate shops allow skilled horse players to make a steady income.

The recent WTO decision against the United States of America by the small island nation of Antigua opens the possibility for offshore horse betting groups to compete legally with parimutuel betting groups.